The year was 1943, and the bombers of the United States armed forces were suffering badly against German anti-aircraft fire. The United States military leadership turned to the Statistical Research Group (SRG) at Columbia University to minimize their losses, supplying data that had been collected on aircraft damage, including the location of damage suffered by the planes that were hit in battle. Based on the data that had been collected, it appeared that planes returning from combat were hit most often in the wings and tail.
Initially, the military was inclined to reinforce the wings and tail because those were the areas on returning airplanes that had received the most damage, but the SRG’s advice ran contrary. The SRG reasoned that because the military data had only been collected only from surviving airplanes, the data failed to show where planes were most vulnerable. The SRG reasoned that the returning planes showed little to no damage in the cockpit and engines because those were the worst places to be hit. And the worst-hit planes—those that were hit in the cockpit and/or engines—never made it back to base to be studied and become a part of the gathered data.
Survivorship bias occurs when researchers focus on a visible, successful subgroup instead of the entire group. In the World War II bomber example, focusing on the airplanes that survived combat would have led to a wrong interpretation of where airplanes are most vulnerable to damage.
Other examples of survivorship bias include wealthy and famous college-dropout tech entrepreneurs who create the perception that a college education is not helpful to starting a tech career. But the reality is that most college dropouts don’t become billionaires. Most actors and musicians are broke and unknown. Most old cars end up on the scrap heap even though the few remaining excellent surviving examples make us all think that “they don’t build them like they used to.”
Now that you are familiar with the danger of survivorship bias, it’s time to take a look at how many churches decide the direction of their evangelism. Consider all of the surveys and studies conducted on the unchurched, where they are asked questions such as, “what would it take to get you to go to church?” or, “what caused you to stop going to church?” The problem with such questions is the group being surveyed.
Many of the unchurched who are surveyed are in the stage of precontemplation – they are living in the world and don’t see a need to live in any other way. If you were to ask such a person what would attract them the most to the gospel, you should not be surprised to receive an unconverted, worldly response. How could such a person, who is not even interested in what you have to offer, be able to tell you what would most attract them to the gospel?
Others surveyed may be in the stage of contemplation – while they may see the problems of living in the world, they are not yet ready, sure of wanting, or lack confidence to make a change. Knowing that you have a problem does not necessarily guarantee that you also know the solution. It would be no different from asking a drunkard for the best way to sobriety. If that alcoholic had never before experienced sobriety and victory over their addiction, how could they ever show you the path to success? How can the lost show you the best way to be found?
It does not make sense to allow such people to shape our ministry choices, but we see it happen all the time. We see young people leaving the church and surmise that church music must not be “hip” enough to lead them to stay, and react by bringing in a drum set (or a cajon for the less edgy). We see the success of coffee shops and cafes as safe gathering places in the community, and try and recreate that atmosphere in church with coffee and donuts in the church lobby. We look at the popular fashion choices of the world and conclude that the standard of wearing one’s “Sabbath best” should be lowered to include lounging in church in flip flops, shorts, and a t-shirt. The congregation becomes an audience; the church platform is a stage; and a hearty “Amen!” in praise to God is replaced with cheering and applause for mere men and women who are no longer worship leaders – they are performers. But to do so is to create a church environment akin to the time of the Judges, when “everyone did what was right in his own eyes” (Judges 21:25).
In such an environment, God would no longer be feared. Instead of worship being conducted in reference to God and God’s standards, the focus of the worship experience is flipped to centers on the worshipper, not on the Creator and Redeemer who alone is worthy of our worship.
Survivorship bias negatively affects evangelism when data is only gathered from the “survivors” – those who have and continue to reject the gospel. What if, instead of focusing on evangelism “survivors” we instead surveyed those who have been “shot down” – newly-baptized converts who have “fallen” for Jesus?
Romans 10:14-15 poses such questions, “For “whoever calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.” How then shall they call on Him in whom they have not believed? And how shall they believe in Him of whom they have not heard? And how shall they hear without a preacher? And how shall they preach unless they are sent?” In order for one to be saved, they must first call on God. And before they call on God, they must believe. And before they believe, they must hear. And before they hear, there must be a preacher. And before there is a preacher, they must be sent by God.
Romans 10:17 says, “…faith comes by hearing, and hearing by the word of God.” Following worldly fashions does not increase our faith.
Coffee cannot convert.
Music that is a bedlam of noise does not bring the peace found only at the foot of the cross. Faith comes by hearing, and hearing by the preaching of the word of God.
Dear Reader, I have a challenge for you today. Avoid the pitfalls of survivorship bias.
Find out the testimonies of those who have been recently “shot down” and “fallen” for Jesus, for there lies the path to successful evangelism. Even more, what is keeping you active in the church and on fire for the Lord?
****
“And let us not become weary in well doing: for in due season we shall reap, if we faint not” (Galatians 6:9).
